Goldman predicts that number to rise to 40% in 2030, and will rise to 12% of total recorded music revenue from 5% last year.

It adds, вЂњcatalog investments will likely remain a major debate until we get greater disclosure and clarity on actual returns, or until actual spend comes down,вЂќ although it points to the enormous growth in the catalogs of Queen and Elton John in the wake of the biopics вЂњBohemian RhapsodyвЂќ and вЂњRocket Man.вЂќД«ut a large part of its growth predictions are based on emerging platforms in the music space, including TikTok, podcasts, video gams and others, which it says accounted for 30% of the industryвЂ™s ad-supported revenues last year. The report also reinforces recent industry chatter about a slowdown in the red-hot catalog-acquisition business, as interest rates rise. вЂњAs a result, recorded music and music publishing both grew at the fastest rate since our records began, up 18.5%/17% yoy, respectively, beating our prior expectations by 11%/12% respectively.вЂќ вЂњThe global music market (recorded, publishing and live) rebounded strongly in 2021, up 34% year over year on our estimates, driven by a strong return of live events (+200% yoy or back to 50% of 2019 levels), the accelerated adoption of streaming (+24% yoy) and the resurgence of physical sales (+16% yoy),вЂќ the report states. Its projections for live music for 2030 remained stable, with a forecast that it will generate $38.3 billion this year. Not surprisingly, it predicts a continued dominance of the three majors - Sony, Universal and Warner - although independents, notably FranceвЂ™s Believe, continue to rise. It also points to the competition between streaming companies as a positive, with Spotify as вЂњthe clear leaderвЂќ with a 34.4% global market share, although its lead is diminishing, YouTube Music and ChinaвЂ™s Tencent Music gaining while Apple Music and Amazon Music remain вЂњbroadly stable.вЂќДЄnd although it lowered its projection for the total number of paid streaming subscribers by 2030 - from 1.277 billion to 1.26 billion -В it raised its streaming revenue projection based on ARPU (average revenue per user), from $42.8 to $45.8. However, it predicts a 12% growth in streaming, вЂњdriven by volume, price and emerging platformsвЂќ and that it will be вЂњresilient in an economic downturn (and more so than SVOD)вЂќ - the report goes to lengths to differentiate audio streaming from video, saying that music is stickier and has deeper market penetration. The report, written by analyst Lisa Yang, tempers some of its predictions for the coming year due to the вЂњimpact of a weaker macroвЂќ and the effect of RussiaвЂ™s war on Ukraine, which largely removes both countries from the global music economy.

Our analysis shows that music remains one of the most undermonetized forms of entertainment, with spending still 40% below its historical peak, while consumption continues to grow year after year.вЂќ The upshot can be found in the reportвЂ™s opening pages: вЂњWe expect consumer spend on music to remain resilient in a higher inflation/ weaker macro environment.

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